Winter Outlook 2026: Wintry weather conditions to start towards end of May

Wintry weather conditions for 2026 will be slightly delayed and will establish towards the end of May 2026, with rainfall expected to be slightly below normal and temperatures above normal for Mauritius.

This weather forecast for the upcoming winter season for the Republic of Mauritius, was presented, yesterday in Vacoas, by the Acting Director of the Mauritius Meteorological Services, Dr Prithiviraj Booneeady.

He explained that the forecast is based on detailed analysis of meteorological and oceanic parameters influencing the southwest Indian Ocean, combined with outputs from global long-range climate models.

Regarding rainfall, Dr Booneeady indicated that Mauritius is expected to receive around 535 mm during winter 2026, representing approximately 80% of the long-term mean, with most rainfall concentrated over the Central Plateau, as well as the eastern and southern regions. In Rodrigues, cumulative rainfall is projected to be near normal at around 440 mm, or about 90% of the long-term average.

As for temperatures, conditions are expected to be warmer than usual. On the central plateau, daytime temperatures will average around 24°C, dropping to about 17°C at night, while coastal regions may experience highs of 29°C and lows of 19°C. In Rodrigues, temperatures are also forecast to be above normal, with daytime highs of around 25°C over high grounds and 28°C along coastal areas, and nighttime lows of approximately 18°C and 20°C respectively.

The Acting Director further highlighted that due to intra-seasonal variations, cooler conditions may occasionally prevail when the Mascarenes fall under the influence of strong anticyclones, leading to daytime temperatures dropping by 2°C or more below normal. During clear and calm nights, minimum temperatures could fall to as low as 11°C in certain areas of Mauritius, and around 13°C over the high grounds of Rodrigues.

Wind conditions are expected to be moderate, predominantly from the east-south-east at speeds of 20 to 30 km/h. However, during peak winter months, particularly in July and August, stronger winds may occur due to intensified pressure gradients, with gusts exceeding 90 km/h in exposed areas.

Sea conditions are also expected to deteriorate at times, with very rough seas and heavy swells generated by extratropical systems and strong anticyclones south of the Mascarenes. These conditions may impact the southern and western coasts of Mauritius and Rodrigues, occasionally leading to tidal surges and temporary flooding in low-lying coastal areas.

Dr Booneeady also cautioned that both islands may experience episodes of extreme weather during the season, including moderate to heavy rainfall, significant temperature fluctuations, strong winds, and high-energy waves. These trends, he noted, are consistent with observations by the World Meteorological Organization regarding the increasing frequency of extreme weather events globally, as well as the effects of rising sea levels.

30 April 2026

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Topics: Weather